Loading...

21 August, 2021 Market Commentary

Retails Sales Slip and Stocks Sink Worldwide


ALL BLOG CONTENT IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. ANY REFERENCE TO OR MENTION OF INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, INDEXES, OR OTHER SECURITIES ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS AND ARE SPECIFICALLY NOT REFERENCED AS PAST RECOMMENDATIONS OF PATTON WEALTH ADVISORS. ALL GRAPHS, CHARTS, AND TABLES ARE PROVIDED FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY. EXPRESSIONS OF OPINION ARE ALSO NOT RECOMMENDATIONS AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE IN REACTION TO SHIFTING MARKET, ECONOMIC, OR POLITICAL CONDITIONS.  IT IS COMMON FOR US TO USE A FUND AS A PROXY FOR AN INDEX OR ASSET CLASS.  FOR MORE DETAILS SEE OUR FULL DISCLOSURE HERE.

Market Commentary for the week ending August 21th, 2021

Summary

  • Retail sales declinedfor the second time in three months but are still up sharply from pre-pandemic levels.
  • Stocks were lower worldwide with small U.S. stocks and emerging markets suffering some of the bigger losses.
  • The housing market shows signs of cooling.

 

This Week’s Performance Highlights

Market Indexes week ending August 21, 2021

Source: www.YCharts.com

  • Stocks fell worldwide with large U.S. stocks holding up better than others down just -0.6% as measured by the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrials underperformed falling -1.1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ declined -0.7%. Although it was a disappointing week the S&P 500 is off just -0.8% from its mid-August record high.
  • Small U.S. stocks suffered much more selling pressure down -2.5% for the week. Unlike large U.S. stocks, small stocks have not hit a new high for about 5 months since mid-March and are off -8.1% from that high.
  • In spite of the S&P 500 being lower for the week, about half of the individual sectors in the S&P were higher with healthcare and utilities leading the way gaining +1.6% and +1.8% respectively. Energy stocks were punished falling -7.1% on fears that the world economic boom may be slowing.
  • International stocks were not spared the selling with developed markets down -2.4% on average and emerging markets slumping -4.3%. The accompanying graph shows some select markets from around the world experiencing some of the poorest week’s performance including China down -6.5% bringing their year-to-date loss to -16.4%.

    Select markets 1 week performance

    Source: www.YCharts.com

  • Commodities were, by far, the worst performing alternative asset dropping -5.6% impacted meaningfully by the decline in the price of oil. Real estate stocks slipped just -0.5% while gold inched higher by +0.2% but still is down year-to-date.
  • Bond prices moved higher by +0.2% leaving the yield on the benchmark 10-Year U.S. Treasury at 1.261%.

Interesting Numbers

511

On Monday, August 16th, the S&P 500 was up +100% from its COVID low on March 23, 2020. It took the S&P 500 just 511 calendar days to double from that low making it the fastest double from a major market low in at least the last 50 years! After doubling in the past, the markets continued meaningfully higher for an extended period of time. Time will tell if that will be the same with today’s markets!

Days to double from lows

Source: www.YahooFinance.com

-14.2%

Sometimes the so-called “smart money” is not so smart. According to an analysis of public filings done by RBC Capital Markets, a large investment firm, Amazon (AMZN) was the biggest stock holding by hedge funds in the second quarter. Other Wall Street firms confirmed the same. So far this has been ill-timed as Amazon’s stock has fallen -14.2% from its June high while the overall market has been generally higher.

Economic Indicators

Retail Sales: -1.1%

Retail sales fell -1.1% in July and have now fallen in 2 of the last 3 months. Sales of cars and trucks, which account for about 20% of total retail sales, experienced one of the steepest declines down -3.9% not necessarily due to a lack of demand but instead due to a shortage of cars to sell. Online sales were lower by -3.1% following a surge last month driven by Amazon’s Prime Day. Restaurants and bars continued to see growth although at a much slower rate than in prior months up +1.7%.

The pandemic and all of the economic support provided by the government has actually been good for retail sales as the accompany graph illustrates. The blue line in the graph represents actualretail sales. The small orange line on the right is a simulation of what retail sales would have been had they continued to grow at the same pace they had been for the prior several years. Today’s sales are more than +12% above this long-term trend line.

Retail sales

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS

Industrial Production: +0.9%

Industrial Production, a measure of manufacturing, mining, and utility production, rose more than forecast in July up +0.9%. This was meaningfully better than the month before. The month’s strength was helped a great deal by motor vehicle production up +11.2% due to manufacturers not taking their usual summer break. This was a big improvement for the auto sector but production still remains -3.5% below the recent January peak in production.

Housing Starts: 1.53 million

The housing market is showing signs of cooling a bit with new Housing Starts falling -7% in July compared to the month before coming in at an annualized rate of 1.53 million homes. The South was the only region to gain for the month up just +2.1% while the Northeast saw a staggering decline of -49%. Builders are struggling with higher construction costs and supply constraints.

As the accompanying graph shows, although starts did fall from the prior month they are still near recent highs but well below the levels in the mid-2000’s housing boom.

Housing starts

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Initial Jobless Claims: 348,000

Weekly initial jobless claims continued lower to a post-pandemic low of 348,000. This is just a fraction of what they were at the height of the pandemic but still about 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Upcoming Economic Reports

  • Durable Goods Orders
  • New Home Sales
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • Market Services PMI
  • Core PCE Price Index
  • Consumer Sentiment Index
  • Initial Jobless Claims

Contact Mark A. Patton :

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. Any specific securities or investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own situation before making any investment decision including whether to retain an investment adviser.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions.  Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. This content was created as of the specific date indicated and reflects the author’s views as of that date. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Any comments about the performance of securities, markets, or indexes and any opinions presented are not to be viewed as indicators of future performance.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on specific indexes please see full disclosure here.

Any charts, tables, forecasts, etc. contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research, and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

All corporate names shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are NOT recommendations.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower-rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.